What does history tell us about a large margin of victory in the playoffs?

Since the end of the lockout in 2005, there have been 9 playoff series where a game was decided by a six or seven goal margin (all were six other than the Bruins win over the Canucks in the Cup Finals last year).

In all but one of those series, the team that lost by 6 or 7 goals in any game lost the series.

Or, to put it another way, the team that won by 6 or 7 goals in a game won every series but one.

I think the Pens still have a big hill to climb, and their chances aren't good, but at least this gives us something to hang our hats on until Friday night.

Here's the list of prior teams who lost big in a game (the loser is first):

• 2011 Pens vs Lightning
• 2011 Canucks vs Bruins
• 2010 Sharks vs Red Wings (Sharks won series)
• 2010 Canadiens vs Flyers
• 2008 Avalanche vs Red Wings
• 2008 Flyers vs Penguins
• 2007 Thrashers vs Rangers
• 2006 Flyers vs Sabres (x2)
• 2006 Devils vs Hurricanes

Penguins adapt, force Game 5

Real life still removing time to blog, but this one was too much fun to pass up.

There were two really encouraging signs to point to from this game:

• Flower improved as the game went along, looking much more like his normal self in the later part of the second and the third period.  The team played much better defensively as well.
• The Pens adjusted to how the refs were calling the game.  After the first period where the Flyers scored three times on the power play, the Pens were not short-handed the rest of the night.  The Flyers took four more penalties in the second period before they learned, but the Pens had built a four-goal lead by that point.

Game 5 is on Friday night.  It won't be this easy, but I think they'll find a way to force a Game 6.

Flyers 4, Penguins 3 (OT)

Inconsistency has been the hallmark of this team in over the past month.  That was the defining characteristic again last night.


The first period was excellent.  After that, things were not so good.

The Pens jumped out to a 3-0 lead after one period.  They dominated the game over the first 10 minutes, scoring twice and forcing Laviolette to call timeout.  I thought when the Pens scored late in the first to make it 3-0 that they were on their way.

It was not to be, however.  Danny Briere scored on a breakaway, though he was clearly offside.  He scored again in the third period on a flukey goal from the half-wall when Sid screened Fleury and neither could stop the shot.  That was when you had an idea that things might not work out well.  Briere also was plastered by Brooks Orpik, drawing the Flyers only power play chance, which they converted to tie the game at 3-3.

I won't even talk about the OT.

The power play let them down as well.  The Pens had three chances but weren't able to generate a serious threat.  They look good on the rush, but if the Flyers sit back and force the Pens to set up and make a play in the zone, they're not able to do it.  That needs to be better.  It was what killed them last year against the Lightning.

The main problem is that the Flyers focused on playing hockey and the Pens weren't able to match them in the latter two periods.  That's the key for the rest of the series - can the Pens find a way to dictate the play?  When they do, they put themselves in a great spot to win games.  When they don't, like last night, things don't go well.

If they aren't able to figure it out, this series won't go very well either.

Final playoff seeding and what about Saturday?

With the win over the Rangers last night, the Pens will have the #4 seed, giving them home ice in the first round.

The Flyers, by virtue of their win over the Sabres, will be the #5 seed.

What does that mean for the game tomorrow?  I have some questions:

Do you play Crosby and Letang?  Both players have had multiple incidents with concussions.  It wouldn't be worth it to lose one of them over something stupid.  If there ever were a team that would try something stupid, it would be the Flyers.

Does Malkin play?  I think this is more likely.  He's going for 50 goals, and he usually takes care of himself pretty well.  I'd put him out there in limited minutes, and in offensive situations like the power play, offensive zone draws or after the Flyers ice the puck.

Is this a Brent Johnson game?  I think that's much more of a no-brainer.  Fleury has played a ton of games this year, and he's your horse in the playoffs.  I think you give Johnson another game.  The only problem I see with this is that Fleury will have played just once in 10 days leading up to Game 1 (assuming it is Wednesday or Thursday).

Does the outcome matter?  If the Pens play their horses and win, does it change the feeling of the Flyers heading into Round 1?  Worse yet, if they play everyone and lose, does it deflate the Pens at all?  I'd be much more worried about the latter.

Will the Flyers use the meaningless game to respond?  Given how upset they supposedly were over Vitale's hit the other night, will they try a bunch of dumb stuff when the outcome doesn't matter?  He's a clue to watch out - Jody Shelley and Zac Rinaldo line up for the opening faceoff.

Playoff scenarios for the Pens - Thursday edition

Real life has kept me from blogging much recently.  Unfortunately, that isn't getting any better, so this will need to be quick.

Here's what you need to know:

• First and foremost, the Pens can take care of business by earning two points tonight against the Rangers.  That would render the Saturday game meaningless as far as home ice advantage goes, as any combination of two points earned by the Pens or lost by the Flyers would seal the deal for the #4 seed for the Pens.
• If the Flyers lose both games and the Devils win both of theirs, the Devils would vault over the Flyers into the #5 spot and play the Penguins in the first round.

So for tonight, obviously cheer for the Pens to beat the Rangers (who have nothing to play for at this point).

Also cheer for Buffalo to beat Philadelphia, not only because it would assure the Pens of the #4 spot, but also because it would also keep the door open for a first round match up with Jersey, AND have the extra added bonus of moving the Capitals one step closer to not making the playoffs.  The Sabres and Caps are tied with two games left, but the Caps hold the tiebreaker.

Lastly, cheer for New Jersey to win in Detroit, at least if you'd rather see the Devils over the Flyers in the first round of the playoffs (I sure would).

Gut Check - Penguins 5, Sabres 3

So what happened?

Brent Johnson had a very shaky start.  He also had a very strong finish.  The backup netminder was fighting the puck all night long, allowing two very soft goals in the first period and multiple rebounds.  However, when it came down to crunch time, there were no crucial rebounds, and there were no goals for the Sabres.

The resurgence of Johnson through the second half of the game may be the most important thing to come out of this contest.  Assuming the Pens give him one more assignment prior to the start of the playoffs, it will give Johnson a chance to continue his momentum and head into the post-season on a high note.

Back to the game - the big guns earned the results tonight.  Sid had four points.  Sullivan had three.  Geno had two.  The power play scored twice.  The offense provided some timely scoring in general, especially to pick up Johnson after a rough first period.

The intensity is also worth mentioning.  There were nearly 60 hits thrown in this game.  It felt like a playoff game, with some nastiness going back and forth early and then settling down as the game wound down (probably due to fear of taking a penalty).

Who scored?

Malkin (48), Crosby (5), Neal (38), Sullivan (15), Staal (25)

The Good?

• Sid became the seventh youngest player to reach 600 points tonight.
• Matt Niskanen returned and stepped right into the top 4 defensemen on a night when Engelland and Strait weren't used as much.
• Neal's power play goal was almost perfect from the perspective of a Pens' fan.  Geno controlled the puck and somehow gained the zone.  He dished it to Crosby who threw a diagonal pass to Neal cutting down the slot.  Neal finished off "The Whitney Play" better than Ryan ever did by burying the puck behind Miller.

The Bad?

• Johnson in the first period.  Not good, especially on the Ennis goal.  Fortunately, he turned things around quickly.

The Ugly Dumb?

• How on early was Thomas Vanek one of the three stars?  Did he do something special I didn't notice?  He was the beneficiary of a bizarre bounce that rewarded him for being the last man out of the offensive zone.  He was also a -1, which means he was on the ice for at least two other goals against.  Second star?  Really?

Any Surprises?

• I was surprised that HCDB kept flip flopping his lines.  He seemed to have Sullivan and Neal switching spots much of the night.

What's their record now?

The Pens are 48-24-6.  They are five points behind the Rangers and four ahead of the Flyers.  

Who's next?

Get ready to feel the hate.  The Flyers come to Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon.  It's on NBC.  You just know Hartnell will do something dumb.

Game #78 - at Buffalo Sabres

No time for the regular preview, as real life has intruded on blogging time lately.

Let's just say that the Sabres (winners of 5 straight) have allowed a total of three goals in their past four games.

The Penguins (losers of three of the past four) have allowed SIXTEEN TWENTY (edited to correct poor math from person who may or may not have a degree in mathematics).

Things are going to have to change, and change quickly, for the Pens.  It only gets more difficult from here.

No Letang.  Niskanen is on the trip, so he may play (and I think he is needed, if only to have someone to play the point on the power play).  Hopefully no ill effects from the puck to the face that Sid took last night.

Go Pens!

Islanders 5, Penguins 3

So what happened?

Poor, inconsistent play for the Penguins in both of these games against the Isles.  You could see the emphasis in defense in terms of their posture in their own zone (the points were wide open for the Isles because everyone was packing it in), but though the look was there, the results were not.  The Isles were able score twice at even strength, and both goals were largely due to defensive breakdowns.

The offense wasn't much better for the Pens, who struggled to generate any kind of consistent pressure.

I think these two games are best forgotten quickly.  The opportunity they missed in these four points was huge.

Who scored?

Dupuis (24), Staal (24), Malkin (47)

The Good?

• Duper has a 12 game point streak.  That's tied for the longest streak this season in the NHL.
• Sid took a puck to the face, but returned to the game (which is the "good" part of that equation).
• Geno reached 100 points on the season.

The Bad?

• You could tell the defense was very wary of the speed of Grabner.  You could also tell there was a huge difference without Niskanen and Letang.

The Ugly?

• The power play for the Pens with five forwards.  They're going to get killed if they keep deploying that - at least throw Paul Martin out there and have him stand by the red line if necessary.  The short-handed chances against have to stop.

Any Surprises?

• I was really surprised HCDB broke up Malkin, Neal and Kunitz.  I know it probably makes the team stronger overall, but I'm not sure I would have done that.

What's their record now?

The Pens are 47-24-6.  They are five points behind the Rangers and just two ahead of the Flyers.  All three teams have five games remaining.

Who's next?

A trip over to Buffalo for a game tomorrow night.

100 - Penguins 5, Devils 2

So what happened?

The Pens were opportunistic with their scoring chances.  They only fired 28 shots on net (a low total for them), but were still able to get four past Martin Brodeur, who did not have one of his better games.

None of the goals were overly pretty, other than Crosby's beautiful breakaway, but they all were right place at the right time type of goals.  Kunitz was available for a pass when Geno stole the puck from Brodeur behind the net.  Dupuis was charging toward the net on the rush when a rebound was tipped back out to him.  Staal had the puck following him, and although he misplayed it a bit, he was able to shoot back against the grain and beat Brodeur.

The defense was also not bad, though they did suffer through several extended sessions in their own zone.  If a team like Jersey can do that, imagine what the Flyers or Rangers might do given the chance.  The Pens will need to clean up their play in their own zone before they're ready to face the tougher opponents next weekend.

Who scored?

Kunitz (23), Staal (23), Dupuis (23), Crosby (4), Malkin (46)

The Good?

• Faceoffs - Sid, Geno and Staal were all positive on the draw.  That's crucial against a team like New Jersey.  Winning the draw means they have a harder time setting up their trap.
• Letang and Crosby both took hard hits (Letang collided head-to-head with Zubrus) and nether seemed any worse for wear.  Hopefully that good feeling continues tomorrow when they wake up.
• Paul Martin was a +4 in almost 23 minutes of ice time.  He probably didn't play quite that well, but he also wasn't as bad as his +/- showed earlier in the season.

The Bad?

• Ben Lovejoy left with an apparent injury.  With Matt Niskanen also hurt currently, I imagine we'll see Simon Despres if Lovejoy will be out for any extended period of time.

The Ugly?

• Patrick Elias on faceoffs.  Eight draws, eight losses.  It doesn't get any uglier than that.

Any Surprises?

• Dan Potash's face when he was goosed by Pascal Dupuis after the second period (I can only assume Dupuis goosed him - you couldn't see what actually happened).  Potash, to his credit, held it together after he was finished jumping.

What's their record now?

The Pens are 47-22-6.  They have 100 points on the season!!  They are one point behind the Rangers and four ahead of the Flyers.  All three teams have seven games remaining.

Who's next?

It's a home and home with the Islanders, starting on Tuesday at Consol.

Game #75 - vs New Jersey Devils

2011-12 Game 75

New Jersey Devils (42-27-6, 90 points) at Pittsburgh Penguins (46-22-6, 98 points)

Matt Cooke - goal scoring machine!?!

Why does it matter?

It was only one loss, but if the Pens fall into a small skid here, they could find themselves facing Philadelphia without home ice advantage in the first round.  I think that's a situation that the team might rather avoid.

What has been happening lately?

• Pens - Last night was the first regulation loss in over a month.
• Devils - The only time they're winning in the past six games is when Brodeur throws a shutout.

Questions to be answered

• Whose pain will be more motivating?  The Pens had a painful loss last night to the Sens, but the Devils have lost four out of six, including an embarrassing loss to the Pens where they were out shot 44-14.
• What is wrong with the power play?  Not only did they look disjointed last night, they allowed a key short-handed goal.
• How will the Pens respond?  It has been so long since their last loss in regulation - can they bounce back or will we see lots of guys making an individual effort to try to run the gauntlet?  That would be playing right into the Devils' hands, in my opinion.

Keys to the game

• Team defense.  Focus on keeping the puck out of the danger areas.
• Clean play in the neutral zone.  Last time, the Pens had no trouble shredding the trap.  Let's hope they can do it again.
• Don't lose confidence.  Even if Brodeur is standing on his head, keep pushing.

Fiasco - Sentaors 8, Penguins 4

So what happened?

You had to know the Pens were going to lay an egg sometime.  Given how they've played against Ottawa this year, this wasn't a total surprise.  The biggest reasons for the loss?  Geno's line was a combined -9.  Even if they're not scoring (which would have been okay tonight), they can't be in the hole that much.  I know one of those came from a shorty on the power play, but more defensive zone responsibility when you have a shaky goaltender would be smart.

And that brings us to the other reason - Brad Thiessen.  He wasn't really at fault on most of the goals, but, for instance, as soon as Spezza started his breakaway (when all five Penguins were way too far into the offensive zone), you knew he was going to score.  Steigy and Errey were right - Marc Andre Fleury is more important to the team than a lot of people give him credit for.

Hopefully this one is already out of the memory banks and they're thinking about New Jersey.

Who scored?

Cooke (18, 19), Kennedy (9), Crosby (3)

The Good?

• Cooke had two.
• If you were a defenseman not named Michalek or Orpik then you had a decent game statistically.

The Bad?

• Everything else.  Giving up 8 is never good.

The Ugly?

• The backup goaltending situation.  Hopefully this won't be an issue in the playoffs, where you can ride Fleury as long as he stays healthy.

Any Surprises?

• I was surprised to see Crosby double-shifted in the first two minutes of the game.  I think it was because Malkin needed a skate adjustment, but still, on the front end of a back-to-back?

What's their record now?

The Pens are 46-22-6.  They are all alone in fourth place in the conference, two points ahead of Philly and three points behind the Rangers.

Who's next?

The Devils come to Consol for a key Atlantic division game.